South Koreans are also more likely to name the U.S. as the worlds leading economy this year compared with last year (up 15 percentage points). Its bureaucracy is robust and its political elites have a conscious plan to expand national power, a vision encapsulated in Xi Jinpings China dream. But the nations capacity to convert these resources into tangible forms of usable civilian and military power is hindered by a contradiction in terms between the essence of power in the 21st centuryinspirational, technologically advanced, outward-looking, and innovatingand the intrinsic nature of the regime currently governing China. In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as Dr. Valbona Zeneli, Marshall Centers professor of National Security Studies, talks about Crime and Corruption, August 12, 2016, during Program on Countering Transnational Organized Crime (George C. Marshall European

Read our research on: Congress | Economy | Gender. International law and international law enforcement are key capabilities for defeating terrorist and adversary networks that span multiple national boundaries. Having a solid understanding of the key mission partners and their strengths across the DIME-FIL will enable commanders and planners to develop more creative plans that share the mission, tasks, and successes through a whole-of-government, international, and interorganizational approach.

E@iA@[BCiS(mb! The difference is especially pronounced in India, where nearly three-quarters say they have a good economic relationship with the U.S. and about four-in-ten say the same about China, a difference of 35 percentage points. The United States is named as the top economic power in 21 of the 34 countries surveyed, while China is considered the top economy in 12 (the U.S. and China are tied as top economic power in Lebanon). National security reviews now include transactions in which a foreign investment was merely a minority interest instead of a controlling share and extend review powers into the real estate sector. The emergence of a new strategic environment necessitates an orchestration of multiple instruments of power. This contradiction will test the Chinese Communist Partys will and ability to implement necessary, and possibly politically costly, reforms. "Chinese use of economic coercion is likely to shape U.S. policy options in Asia and constrain both U.S. policymakers and companies maneuverability globally.". 3 0 obj In the past decade, China has expanded its set of such economic instruments to include sticks, not just carrots. The other Middle East and North African countries surveyed are the only countries where fewer than half say relations are currently positive. As a result, the economic instrument relies on the diplomatic instrument to carry out these actions. Generally, most non-European countries see the United States as the worlds leading economic power, while those in Europe tend to name China. In the sub-Saharan African countries surveyed, only those in Nigeria would rather have strong economic ties with China than with the U.S. About three-in-ten in Nigeria also volunteer that strong ties with both are more important. The organizations participate in the activities of collection, processing, integration, analysis, and interpretation of available information of hostile or potentially hostile forces that result in intelligence products.17 Activities are often associated with processes (such as the Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment process, the targeting process, the intelligence process, etc. 7 Financial systems can include formal banking, informal systems, online value storage transfer systems, or cash couriers. Still, Lithuanians are 23 percentage points more likely to see the U.S. as the top economy. When directly comparing the perceived positive influence from the U.S. and China, outside of the Asia-Pacific region, Chinese economic influence is largely seen in more positive terms than American influence. For Russians, this is a 14-point increase in the share who chose China in 2018, and a continuation of a steady upward trend in the share that see China as the worlds leading economy. In the past decade, China has expanded its set of such economic instruments to include sticks, not just carrots. WebThe military instrument of national power can be used in a wide variety of ways that vary in purpose, scale, risk, and combat intensity. Finally, information-sharing between agencies and partnerships with external agencies and nations will be paramount to optimize intelligence activities, make faster decisions, and create unity of effort with mission partners. Washington, DC 20319-5066. The U.S. Government has 17 national agencies with different mission sets utilized for intelligence-sharing and cooperation. Roughly three-quarters in Kenya and Nigeria say the same, while about six-in-ten see at least a fair amount of Chinese influence on their domestic economies in the three Latin American countries surveyed. Capitol Hill should also work to fund innovation in key economic sectors. Power sets the parameters on each action or set of actions between political entities. On balance, more prefer for their country to have closer relations with the U.S. (a median of 46%) than China (32%). The intelligence instrument delivers decision advantage through activities, products, and organizations, mainly through national and international intelligence agencies, enabling value-added data for the rest of the IOPs. endobj WebPower is not simply what resources a country has at its disposal. Chinas National Power: A Colossus with Iron or Clay Feet? Coercion also serves domestic political purposes for Beijing, which has cultivated rising nationalism domestically and which can use coercive economic measures to show domestic political audiences that China is acting to punish countries and companies that fail to conform to Beijings wishes. It is the responsibility of planners and commanders to synchronize the instruments and create a more strategic globally integrated approach. But in South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of influence. China has punished countries that undermine its territorial claims and foreign policy goals with measures such as restricting trade, encouraging popular boycotts, and cutting off tourism. The leadership is aware of the problems but is not necessarily responding with the right remedies. In Tunisia and Israel, the belief that the U.S. is the dominant economic power grew by double digits from 2018 (up 12 and 10 points, respectively). 8 Carl Priechenfried, Untying Our Hands: Untying Cyber as an Instrument of National Power, Masters thesis, Joint Advanced Warfighting School, 2017, available at . The decision by Opec+ members to cut production could be a prescient adjustment ahead of a global slowdown or a premature move that hinders recovery. By g8@"-DeAWpjnTYf4)J7y);5y\H*a 0M4yuMFmp#qh Dx[&S2^DmBit|z. Those in Lebanon and Tunisia are at least 20 points more likely to see the influence as negative. These various ways can be understood to occur across a continuum of conflict ranging from peace to war. As such, investing in the right capabilities is 18 This includes all of the intelligence disciplinesgeospatial, human, signals, measurement and signature, and so forth. Partner nations assist with local intelligence, while the private sector provides independent investigation and analysis. Opinions in the Middle East and North Africa are also conflicted. Through the diplomatic, intelligence, and financial IOPs, the law enforcement IOP is able to balance enforcing U.S. national laws and sovereignty with adhering to international law to maintain legitimacy while proactively detaining criminals to protect U.S. citizens and assist mission partners with their security needs. Recently, as Chinas market has grown ever more important to global companies, China has also begun targeting individual corporations with coercive measures if they fail to adopt Beijings preferred policy positions. The intelligence instrument delivers decision advantage through activities, products, and organizations, mainly through national and international intelligence agencies, enabling value-added data for the rest of the IOPs. The financial IOP was born during the war on terror, as the United States sought to disrupt and dismantle global terrorist financial networks. Law Enforcement. In this sense, power and policy are intertwined. The U.S. military has more resources and planning experience compared to other agencies and partners, which provide a tremendous opportunity to coordinate, synchronize, and harmonize the instruments and subsequently the mission partners involved. Across the Middle East and North Africa, majorities or pluralities consider the U.S. to be the worlds leading economy. A clear definition can assist in the understanding, application, and synchronization of the IOPs for unity of effort in a competitive environment. When China undertakes multilateral coercive economic measures, such as sanctions, Beijing has helped to reinforce global normsfor example, nonproliferation. It is possible that in the midterm Beijing will formalize some of its coercive economic measures, particularly if Beijing adopts a planned Export Control Law, though China is likely to continue relying on informal and extralegal measures for the majority of its economic coercion. The increased understanding of the FIL IOPs allows the joint community to update doctrine, synchronize, and involve mission partners early in planning and perform in the competitive environment, ultimately achieving unity of effort and effectively protecting national interests. These various ways can be understood to occur across a continuum of conflict ranging from peace to war. But in South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of influence. WebPower is not simply what resources a country has at its disposal. Japanese are relatively divided on the issue, with 42% citing positive influence and 39% negative. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%). Chinese use of economic coercion is likely to shape U.S. policy options in Asia and constrain both U.S. policymakers and companies maneuverability globally. In the Asia-Pacific region, ties with the U.S. are more frequently rated as good in India, South Korea and Japan. For example, in the Asia-Pacific countries surveyed, a median of 46% say the U.S. is the top economy, while a 25% median say the same about China. But in South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of influence. Those in Israel and Lebanon are much more likely to see the Chinese impact on economic conditions in their country as positive. Opinions are unified in the Asia-Pacific countries surveyed, with greater shares in all six preferring strong U.S. economic ties. 2 0 obj As a result, it is perhaps time to transition from a DIME to DIME-FIL concept. The preliminary definitions addressed for the finance, intelligence, and law enforcement instruments provide a solid starting point to incorporate and update joint doctrine related to strategy, concepts, and planning. Likewise, majorities in the sub-Saharan African and Latin American countries surveyed also rate their economic relationship with China positively. 4 Military Strategic Plan for the Global War on Terrorism (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, February 1, 2006), 6, available at . WebNational Power (CNP) approach, it will show that China is deliberately increasing power across of broad spectrum of instruments in an attempt to challenge the US. Center for a New American Security (en-US), Constructing Regional Partnerships and Seizing Emerging Opportunities, General Mike Holmes, U.S. Air Force (Ret. This is most extreme in South Korea, where there is a 70 percentage point difference between those who cite American economic supremacy (82%) and Chinese dominance (12%). This sense is highest among Israelis, 96% of whom say American-Israeli economic ties are positive. Since 9/11, the reorganization of U.S. intelligence agencies has proved vital in disrupting terrorist and criminal organizations. Opinions in the Latin American countries surveyed are similar, though less effusive; fewer than two-thirds in all three countries say their economic ties with the U.S. are positive, and substantial minorities say the ties are bad. 4 0 obj Most also say current economic relations with the United States are going well; a median of 64% say relations are in good shape, compared with 23% who say the opposite. Pyle Center for Northeast Asia Studies, John M. Shalikashvili Chair in National Security Studies, Center for Innovation, Trade, and Strategy. It will attempt to answer this question by applying the various instruments of national power to form a qualitative assessment of the degree to which NATO exerts itself in these those power domains and how effectively these prepare NATO for conventional warfare. Power sets the parameters on each action or set of actions between political entities. However, there is little explicit information on the new IOPs and even less guidance regarding the potential application of a more granular conception of IOPs in a competitive environment. U.S. competitors seek to attack partnerships, use the international system to slow actions, and delegitimize efforts across the globe. 13 Leah McGrath Goodman and Lynnley Browning, The Art of Financial Warfare: How the West Is Pushing Putins Buttons, Newsweek, April 24, 2014, available at . Laying out the instruments of national power and distinguishing between hard and soft approaches is essential to evaluating a grand strategy and proposing the use of instruments to countervail a competing state. Additional IOPs have been identified, along with key mission partners, that have the potential to result in better resource utilization, diversity of thought, and smoother transitions. Only in Europe do more countries name China as the worlds leading economy. In this sense, power and policy are intertwined. China has targeted countries such as the Philippines for their challenges to Chinas maritime claims and Norway for its alleged intrusion in Chinese domestic politics for the awarding of a Nobel Peace Prize to dissident Liu Xiaobo. Though economic coercion is one of many facets of Chinese economic statecraft, U.S. policymakers must better understand it. 10 Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism (USA PATRIOT) Act, Pub. Whether or not the measures are formal, however, the United States and other nations will need a formal response and must begin to formulate it immediately. As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. Indians, Indonesians and South Koreans are also much more likely to see the U.S. influence as positive than negative. The economic IOP is used at the political level to influence the behavior of another state or organization.9 This is normally achieved through foreign aid, trade agreements, tariffs, embargos, or economic sanctions. The National Intelligence Councils Global Trends Report indicates that the blurring of peacetime and wartime, the ease of disruption caused by nonstate groups, increase in standoff and remote attack capabilities, and new concerns about nuclear weapons and weapons of mass destruction are shaping conflicts that are more diffuse, diverse, and disruptive.24 The 2019 National Intelligence Strategy provides some guidelines on the trends and focus areas such as strategic intelligence, anticipatory intelligence, current operations intelligence, and cyber threat intelligence.25. stream Intelligence. China, too, I would argue uses hard instruments of power, particularly economic power, for soft power purposes. WebNATOs deterrence and defence posture is based on, among other factors, an effective combination of cutting-edge weapons systems and platforms, and forces trained to work together seamlessly. Resources must be effectively managed and leveraged to ensure a states interests are met within the international system. U.S. military legal expertise should broaden to international law and be incorporated into planning (not just law of armed conflict and rules of engagement). China has punished countries that undermine its territorial claims and foreign policy goals with measures such as restricting trade, encouraging popular boycotts, and cutting off tourism. The U.S. and China are tied in Lebanon, with a third naming each as the top economy. Opening the aperture and adding more instruments of power to the U.S. lexicon signal that warfare has changed and that all instruments and partners are necessary for success. Second, a comparison of the US DIME (Diplomacy, Information, Military, and Economic) model will show that the US remains the dominant global power, but that China is investing in Today, one of President Xi Jinpings central foreign policy initiatives, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a potentially trillion-dollar testament to Beijings commitment to using loans, infrastructure projects, and other economic measures as foreign policy tools. Favorable views of Chinese investment and Chinas growing military power are also tied to a preference for ties with China. As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%). hmsD?A^0e{ia&Im^(%GKgw8~Z(w=nF66J2L(It81ITD{%JQ35S #)FR JeSdqV64h%^UQ88;;[7Bb7 e9T7(:/C'Q,;Z98wClaoRQSE{;tUeY>i4oy>t0wMQ`Xu'pO\k0c This is especially true in Turkey, where about two-thirds said economic ties between their country and the U.S. were bad, even before the U.S. imposed new sanctions on Turkey in October. When it comes to the current state of economic relations with China, publics are much more likely to describe them as good (median of 66%) than bad (21%). This in turn can reduce the suffering of the population and improve U.S. legitimacy and credibility. Edoardo Saravalle is a former Researcher for the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). Those in Turkey and Israel say strong ties with the U.S. are more important, and those in Lebanon and Tunisia say close economic ties with China are more important. 21 JP 3-13, Information Operations (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, November 27, 2012, Incorporating Change 1, November 20, 2014), available at . The law enforcement IOP is crucial to achieving legitimacy by balancing national, international, and foreign law with national interests and partnering with local law enforcement entities to achieve unity of effort and accomplish objectives. In the next decade, Chinas relative economic power will expand, giving Beijing additional leverage over a more diverse set of countries and companies. In each instance, data for all countries in which the question was asked will be reported, though this may include only a subset of the 34 countries. Building on these efforts, the administration should increase outreach to allies. The goal of this report is to begin spurring a global, coordinated response. Ultimately, the intelligence IOP provides decision advantage, and the information IOP is meant to influence a target audience. Power sets the parameters on each action or set of actions between political entities. Each line of effort will require a distinct and harmonious combination of the IOPs. More in the three sub-Saharan countries surveyed say the U.S. has a positive economic influence than say it has a negative influence. About four-in-ten or more see Chinese influence positively in the Latin American nations surveyed as well. For the State and Defense Departments, integrating all four elements of national power to achieve optimal negotiation outcomes is a highly complex and increasingly important requirement to achieve US strategic objectives given the disappearance of unconditional surrender and its nearly unlimited diplomatic yield to victorious states. Still, substantial minorities of around one-in-five or more describe it negatively. The financial IOP tends to be more agile in nature as it can specifically target countries, organizations, companies, and individuals utilizing banking systems to project power. Strategy: Directing the Instruments of National Power By Steven Aftergood April 30, 2018 The tools that can be used to assert national power and influence have often been summarized by the acronym DIME Diplomatic, Informational, Military, and Economic.

Poles and Slovaks are also at least 10 points more likely to choose the U.S. over China. Xi has made clear that under his continued leadership, China will take a more assertive posture abroad. A key U.S. strength is its alliances and leadership in the international system. The focus of the intelligence IOP is the production of value-added data for the commander or decisionmaker to make informed decisions. This approach could act as a deterrent by raising costs for Chinas conduct. Across many of these countries, too, there is little ambiguity about which country is dominant, with double-digit differences between the shares who choose the U.S. and who choose China as the top economy. In 2017, the United States targeted North Koreas ability to generate funds by potentially suspending U.S. correspondent account access to any foreign bank that knowingly conducts or facilitates significant transactions tied to trade with North Korea or certain designated persons.14 In 2018, the restoration of sanctions on Iran targeted financial institutions, companies, and individuals tied to Irans shipping, financial, and energy sectors, resulting in 700 additional companies and individuals on the sanction rolls, causing concern from the Iranian public and flaming potential unrest toward the regime.15.

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Diplomatic instrument to carry out these actions Congress | economy | Gender positively in the past,. Its alliances and leadership in the understanding, application, and the information is... More describe it negatively synchronize the instruments and create a more strategic globally integrated approach implement,... The war on terror, as the top economy influence as negative contradiction will test the Chinese impact on conditions. Has at its disposal and adversary networks that span multiple national boundaries 42 citing! Deal of influence will take a more assertive posture abroad China will take a more strategic globally approach... Reinforce global normsfor example, nonproliferation has expanded its set of actions between political entities or Clay Feet distinct! In India, South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of.... The suffering of the intelligence IOP is meant to influence a target.! 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