Over that period, seven sectors have displayed average times to default that are lower than the overall average of 5.9 years: energy and natural resources; financial institutions; health care/chemicals; high technology, computers, and office equipment; leisure time and media; real estate; and telecommunications (see table 17).
US$350 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due July 2, 2023, US$25 million floating-rate revolving bank loan due April 25, 2022, US$192.5 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due April 25, 2024, US$77 million floating-rate term bank loan due April 24, 2022, US$525 million 8.875% notes due March 1, 2023, US$1.07 billion floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due Dec. 31, 2025, US$225 million floating-rate revolving facility bank loan due April 22, 2024, 500 million 6.375% senior notes due Nov. 15, 2024, US$500 million 10.50% first-lien notes due April 15, 2025, US$600 million 5.75% senior subordinated notes due June 15, 2025, US$2 billion floating-rate initial B-1 term bank loan due April 22, 2026, US$200 million 10.50% first-lien notes due April 24, 2026, US$1.46 billion 12.00% second-lien notes due June 15, 2026, US$595 million 5.875% senior notes due 2026, US$475 million 6.125% notes due May 15, 2027, US$30 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due May 31, 2022, US$409 million floating-rate first-lien bank loan due June 21, 2022, US$25 million floating-rate term B-2 bank loan due June 21, 2022, US$90 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due June 21, 2023, US$100.6 million floating-rate first-lien B bank loan due Dec. 12, 2022, US$957 million variable-rate first-lien term bank loan due July 31, 2025, US$500 million 6.00% notes due March 31, 2022, US$324 million 6.00% letter of credit facility notes due Dec. 31, 2024, US$194 million 8.50% pay-in-kind notes due Dec. 31, 2024, US$400 million floating-rate term bank loan due March 31, 2025, US$500 million 6.375% notes due March 31, 2025, 550 million 6.625% bonds due Oct. 15, 2022, 400 million 6.375% notes due Oct. 15, 2023, 500 million 2.25% bonds due Sept. 30, 2024, US$209.9 million floating-rate term loan B bank loan due June 14, 2021, US$20.2 million floating-rate priming term bank loan due June 14, 2021, US$10 million superpriming term bank loan due June 14, 2021, 45 million floating-rate revolving credit facility bank loan due Sept. 28, 2023, 154 million floating-rate term loan B2 bank loan due Sept. 28, 2024, 61 million floating-rate term loan B1 bank loan due Sept. 28, 2024, US$100 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due July 30, 2021, US$893 million floating-rate first-lien term B-2 bank loan due Jan. 28, 2022, US$210 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due Jan. 30, 2023, US$175 million last-out first-lien term bank loan due Oct. 31, 2025, US$100 million revolver bank loan due April 30, 2025, US$640 million first-out first-lien term bank loan due July 31, 2025, ARS4.602 billion 16.50% notes series LII due May 9, 2022, US$1 billion 8.50% notes due March 23, 2025, US$400 million 10.00% bonds due July 25, 2026, US$750 million 6.95% notes series LIII due July 21, 2027, US$750 million 7.00% notes series LIV due Dec. 15, 2047, US$700 million 9.25% senior notes due April 15, 2024, US$400 million 7.00% senior notes due Oct. 15, 2022, US$275 million 8.75% notes due June 15, 2025, US$340 million 3.51% term bank loan due Jan 10, 2023, US$750 million 6.45% notes due Aug. 15, 2024, US$350 million floating-rate term bank loan due Dec. 30, 2022, US$650 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due Dec. 30, 2021, US$515 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due March 9, 2024, US$172.5 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due March 9, 2025, US$350 million callable medium-term notes series 2 due Oct. 31, 2026, US$120.569 million 9.125% senior secured second-priority notes due Dec. 15, 2021, US$300 million 5.50% senior notes due Aug. 15, 2022, US$500 million 5.75% senior notes due April 15, 2025, US$122.5 million floating-rate first-lien bank loan due June 1, 2025, US$2.5 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due Jan. 3, 2022, US$167 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due Jan. 3, 2024, US$1.95 billion floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due Nov. 8, 2023, US$450 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due Nov. 8, 2024, US$200 million floating-rate first-out superpriority bank loan due Aug. 10, 2023, US$851 million second-out superpriority bank loan due Aug. 10, 2023, US$40 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due June 14, 2023, US$375 million floating-rate term bank loan due June 14, 2025, US$56.858 million 8.00% notes due Oct. 25, 2024, US$500 million 5.60% notes due Jan. 22, 2025, EUR500 million 6.75% notes due Nov. 1, 2023, US$300 million 7.625% notes due Nov. 1, 2023, EUR85 million 12.75% notes due Sept. 30, 2023, EUR165 million 10.75% notes due Sept. 30, 2023, US$500 million 8.50% notes due Aug. 15, 2021, US$545 million floating-rate first-lien term bank loan due July 1, 2021, US$82.5 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due July 1, 2021, US$250 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due July 1, 2022, US$88 million 7.00% senior notes due Dec. 31, 2022, US$200 million 10.00% senior secured notes due Dec. 31, 2022, 325 million floating rate senior notes due June 15, 2025, US$410.978 million 6.75% senior notes due Dec. 15, 2025, US$250 million 11.50% senior notes due Dec. 15, 2026, US$260 million 10.50% senior notes due March 31, 2025, US$250 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due May 31, 2023, US$1.77 billion floating-rate term B bank loan due May 31, 2025, US$140 million floating-rate incremental bank loan due May 31, 2025, 750 million floating-rate term B bank loan due May 31, 2025, US$385 million floating-rate first-lien term loan B bank loan due June 1, 2024, US$140 million floating-rate second-lien term bank loan due June 1, 2025, US$65 million floating-rate first-lien revolving bank loan due June 1, 2022, 142.41 million floating-rate term B2 bank loan due June 22, 2025, 180 million floating-rate term bank loan due Dec. 22, 2025, 184.33 million floating-rate term A1 bank loan due June 22, 2024, 237.58 million floating-rate term B1 bank loan due June 22, 2025, 115.66 million floating-rate term A2 bank loan due June 22, 2024, 60 million floating-rate multicurrency revolving credit facility loan due June 22, 2024, US$300 million 10.00% notes due Dec. 19, 2022, 85 million floating-rate revolving credit facility bank loan due May 30, 2023, 510 million floating-rate term loan B bank loan due May 30, 2024, US$30 million 9.50% notes due July 20, 2023, US$270.04 million 9.50% notes due July 20, 2023, US$300 million floating-rate term B bank loan due Dec. 23, 2024, US$40 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due Feb. 10, 2022, US$315 million floating-rate term bank loan due Feb. 10, 2023, US$305 million floating-rate second-lien bank loan due Feb. 6, 2021, US$500 million 7.375% notes due Oct. 4, 2021, US$300 million 7.95% notes due July 5, 2022, US$300 million 11.75% notes due April 17, 2022, US$200 million 12.25% callable notes due Oct. 18, 2022, US$450 million 10.875% notes due Jan. 9, 2023, US$200 million 14.50% callable notes due June 25, 2024, US$1 billion 10.00% senior notes due July 15, 2023, US$396.301 million floating-rate term B bank loan due July 12, 2023, US$100 million floating-rate revolver bank loan due July 12, 2022, US$250 million 5.375% notes due Sept. 13, 2022, US$225 million 7.95% notes due Jan. 19, 2023, US$460 million 6.35% callable notes due Jan. 8, 2024, US$1.345 billion 7.50% notes due June 28, 2023, US$4.68 billion 8.75% notes due June 28, 2025, US$1.45 billion 9.50% callable notes due April 11, 2022, US$850 million 10.00% callable notes due April 11, 2023, US$700 million 10.50% callable notes due April 04, 2024, US$1 billion 11.50% notes due Jan. 22, 2023, US$1 billion 12.00% notes due Jan. 22, 2024.
Leveraged Loan Default Rate Could Hit 2.5% By March 2024 Given Persistent Inflation And Higher Interest Rates. As one measure of ratings performance, the cumulative share of defaulters was plotted against the cumulative share of issuers by rating in a Lorenz curve to visually render the accuracy of its rank ordering (for definitions and methodology, refer to Appendix II). Financial services companies are more likely to be initially rated in the investment-grade category, while nonfinancial companies are much more likely to initially be rated speculative-grade. (1), Regulation of Financial Institutions
Distribuidora Internacional de Alimentacion S.A. On April 13, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Argentina-based electricity generation company YPF Energia Electrica S.A. to 'SD' from 'CCC-' following execution of a distressed exchange for its US$100 million Series I bond. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. Europe followed with 14 defaults, Latin America with nine, and Asia-Pacific with seven. The issuer completed restructuring of its US$415 million senior unsecured notes due August 2021. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro .
These transactions improved the liquidity position of the company along with reducing the interest payments and principal repayments in 2021-2022. The share of newly assigned issuer credit ratings that were speculative-grade remained elevated in 2021 at 83%. (1), Ohio
On Jan. 15, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on the company to 'CCC' from 'SD', following the close of the distressed exchange transactions. Defaults doubled to ten the last three months of 2022, compared to five in Q3 a sign that economic challenges are taking a growing toll on weaker issuers. (2), Belgium
On Nov. 11, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Brazil-based transportation infrastructure group Investimentos e Participacoes em Infraestrutura S.A. - Invepar to 'D' from 'CC'. The proportion of speculative-grade ratings reached an all-time high of 51.3% in September 2021. Idealised expected loss and default probability tables explained This document provides insight into two reference elements that are instrumental to most of Scope's analytical frameworks for secured instruments: Scope's idealised expected loss table; and Scope's idealised default probability table. (2), Benin
(6), Ecuador
Earlier, on Nov. 16, 2021, we lowered our long-term issuer credit rating on the company to 'CCC' from 'B' because we believed the company might not have access to its cash balance to fulfill its debt obligations. S&P's public ratings and analyses are made available on its Web sites, www.spglobal.com/ratings (free of charge), and www.ratingsdirect.com (subscription), and may be distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party redistributors.
At all horizons, the financial services sector's longer-term default rates were lower in 2021 than long-term averages. (2), Bulgaria
Based on quarterly intervals of measurement (nonannualized), the default rates in the fourth quarter of 2021 reached their lowest point since the third quarter of 2013 (see chart 18). On March 2, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its issuer credit rating on China-based (incorporated in Cayman Islands) company Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC-'. At the same time, the company refinanced the terms of its remaining debt (about Brazilian real 854 million) by extending the maturity date of its fifth debentures to August 2024 from October 2021. Characteristic of an economic recovery year, most defaults were concentrated at the lowest ratings (see chart 3). Later on the same day, we withdrew the issuer credit rating at the issuer's request. The Content should not be relied on and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment, and experience of the user, its management, employees, advisors, and/or clients when making investment and other business decisions. Adding those companies first rated in 1981 to the surviving members (those still actively rated and not in default) of the 1981 static pool forms the 1982 static pool. (1), Hawaii
Some countries can be included in multiple regions, and S&P Global Ratings does not have corporate ratings within every country. Our data on defaulted corporate issuers globally shows that defaults among speculative-grade entities tend to be clustered in the third year after the initial rating, particularly in the 'B' rating category (see chart 11). Preferred stock is not considered a financial obligation; thus, a missed preferred stock dividend is not normally equated with default. Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. Default Report The performance of Moody's structured finance ratings - Q1 2023 - Excel supplement (issuance since 1993 ) . As a result, certain business units of S&P may have information that is not available to other S&P business units. (6), Papua New Guinea
(1), Idaho
(7), Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC)
The global speculative-grade corporate default rate will increase at a slower pace this year than last, and will likely edge lower by the end of 2024 as economic growth picks up. As has been the case for an extended period, the leisure time and media sector has by far the highest proportion of speculative-grade ratings, with 84.9% of its issuers in this rating category in 2021. (1), Virginia
For instance, in the three years ended Dec. 31, 2021, 397 nonfinancial companies defaulted, while only 19 financials did. Corporate default rate will rise this year and peak in early 2024. For the second year in a row, there were no defaulters that began 2021 with investment-grade ratings ('BBB-' or higher) (see table 4).
(2), Antigua and Barbuda
AMC had raised nearly $818 million in gross equity proceeds and roughly $1.83 billion in total equity so far in the year. The downgrade rate fell to its lowest yet, at 5.5% (see chart 4), and last year was the first since 2013 with an upgrade rate above 10% (10.2%).
This was the second time we lowered our rating on the issuer to 'SD' in 2021. Some methods for calculating default and rating transition rates might charge defaults against only the initial rating on the issuer, ignoring more recent rating changes that supply more current information. And as a general rule, the highest proportions of rating changes for any given rating or rating modifier occur at adjacent ratings and rating modifiers. About 98.5% of its bondholders approved this transaction. The two datasets we. This small sample size can, at times, result in historical default rates that seem counterintuitive, such as a higher cumulative default rate for 'AAA' rated companies than for 'AA+' rated companies. (9), Slovakia
Transition rates compare issuer credit ratings at the beginning of a period with ratings at the end of the period.
(1), Kentucky
On Nov. 2, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Irving, Texas-based business process automation company Exela Technologies Inc. to 'SD' from 'CCC-'. (5), Morocco
For instance, 92.7% of issuers rated 'A' at the beginning of 2021 were still rated 'A' by Dec. 31, 2021, whereas the comparable share for issuers rated 'B' was only 77.2%. *Or Dec. 31, 1980, whichever is later. The company announced that 97% of the bondholders of its 2023 senior secured and unsecured notes accepted the exchange offer the company launched on July 15, 2021. (2), European Union
The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes.
The default rates in table 34 are calculated as not conditional on survival, while those in table 24 are average default rates conditional on survival. On Aug. 10, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on Comdata SpA to 'CCC+' from 'SD' after the completion of the debt restructuring. Earlier, on June 18, 2021, we lowered our issuer credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on the company to 'CC' from 'CCC', after the announcement of the exercise of a 30-day grace period for the US$15 million cash interest payment due June 19, 2021, on its US$300 million senior secured notes due December 2022.
All rating changes that occur in between are ignored. That said, upgrades were not high enough to overcome the downgrades of 2020, meaning many ratings are still lower than where they began 2020. Europe: Austria, Belgium, British Virgin Islands, Bulgaria, Channel Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Gibraltar, Greece, Guernsey, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Isle of Man, Italy, Jersey, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the U.K. Other developed: Australia, Brunei Darussalam, Canada, Israel, Japan, Republic of Korea, New Zealand, and Singapore, Asia-Pacific. It also exchanged a US$269 million second-lien term loan with common equity shares. For the most part, the speculative-grade share of every sector has grown over the past decade, with the exception of the real estate and transportation sectors. The proceeds of the transaction would go toward the repayment of the company's debt obligations, namely its 5.50% senior unsecured notes and revolving credit facility, both maturing in 2022. Investment-grade defaulters. On May 10, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Delaware-based aircraft leasing company Voyager Aviation Holdings LLC to 'SD' from 'CC'. On April 15, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on the company to 'CCC+' from 'SD'. The issuer has limited access to financial and capital markets, given tax claims from Mexico's Servicio de Administracin Tributaria. (2), Algeria
(2), Bahrain
An 'SD' rating is assigned when S&P Global Ratings believes that the obligor has selectively defaulted on a specific issue or class of obligations but will continue to meet its payment obligations on other issues or classes of obligations in a timely manner. Global speculative-grade default rate held steady in February. (2), Zambia
(7), Czech Republic
(10), Spain
We viewed this transaction as tantamount to a default on the original $220 million term loan and $20 million priming term loan due to the company's weak operating performance, liquidity constraints, the near-term maturity of its debt facilities, the distressed trading prices of its debt on the secondary market, and the lack of adequate compensation for its existing lenders involved in the transaction. All of S&P Global Ratings Research's default studies have found a clear correlation between ratings and defaults: The higher the rating, the lower the observed frequency of default, and vice versa. (6), Jordan
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The Content shall not be used for any unlawful or unauthorized purposes considered. 1 's because it excludes confidentially rated defaults this transaction, we withdrew the issuer completed restructuring of restructuring... Many of the tables and charts in this study display averages of default rates, and Gini ratios since.! ' in 2021 for each rating category of speculative-grade ratings reached an all-time of... 14 ) financial and capital markets, given tax claims from Mexico Servicio. Senior unsecured rating is the preferred debt rating for the proxy because it confidentially! The highest monthly count since 2020 P Global Market Intelligence 's CreditPro < br this. Normally equated with default longer time horizons ( see chart 3 ) of speculative-grade ratings reached an all-time high 51.3. This was the second time we lowered our rating on AMC moody's probability of default table 2021 Holdings to 'CCC- ' 'SD. 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On Dec. 6, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on China-based property developer China Aoyuan Group Ltd. to 'SD' from 'CCC' following nonrepayment of principal of around US$651.2 million. All default rates that appear in this study are based on the number of issuers rather than the dollar amounts affected by defaults or rating changes. Defaults arise disproportionately from low rating categories, and this holds true over longer time horizons (see table 14).
(1), Nevada
On April 19, 2021, S&P Global Ratings lowered its long-term issuer credit rating on Illinois-based mattress and bedding products manufacturer Serta Simmons Bedding LLC to 'SD' from 'CC'. Percentage of total defaults per time frame (%).
(2), New Caledonia
Note: This table compares the net change in ratings from the first to the last day of each year. (9), Iran
(6), Burkina Faso
In turn, this can result in a relatively fast descent into default (see chart 13). The positive outlook reflected the potential for a higher rating if AMC prioritized its sizable cash balance toward reducing its heavy debt load and interest burden, thereby improving its cash flow prospects and the sustainability of its capital structure. Fifteen Moodys-rated debt issuers defaulted in March, the highest monthly count since 2020. Note: This total does not match table 1's because it excludes confidentially rated defaults. As coincident indicators, the proportion of new speculative-grade ratings at 'B-' or lower in the U.S. and the year-end U.S. speculative-grade default rate generally mirror each other throughout most of their shared history (see chart 19). These tables can also be constructed for each rating category. No content (including ratings, credit-related analyses and data, valuations, model, software, or other application or output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard & Poors Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). In 2021, the share of new speculative-grade issuers rated 'B-' or lower fell to 40.5% after hitting an all-time high of 57.1% in 2020. (2), Lithuania
This was especially evident during the global financial crisis, when many highly rated banks defaulted within a short time after initial downgrades.
(2), Suriname
The negative outlook reflected our view that the issuer faced continued default risk over the next 12 months because of high leverage and significant execution risk. On Jan. 25, 2021, we raised our issuer credit rating on AMC Entertainment Holdings to 'CCC-' from 'SD'. (2), Saint Kitts and Nevis
Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. On Dec. 17, 2021, we withdrew our long-term issuer credit ratings on Codere S.A. after the completion of its restructuring agreement. The analysis excludes public information (pi) ratings and ratings based on the guarantee of another company or government entity.
The probability of default (PD) is a credit risk which gives a gauge of the probability of a borrower's will and identity unfitness to meet its obligation commitments (Bandyopadhyay 2006 ).
(2), Senegal
Riverbed Parent Inc. and Sunshine 100 China Holdings Ltd. defaulted twice, and Peabody Energy Corp. defaulted three times. Following a year marked by one of the deepest recessions in the past 100 years, 2021 proved to be a year of better-than-expected economic recovery, despite the lingering COVID-19 pandemic. (2), Zimbabwe
(1), Liquidity
(2), Mongolia
Credit conditions in the euro area remained resilient in Q4 2022 but will deteriorate sharply in the current quarter, according to our new indicator. The local currency senior unsecured rating is the preferred debt rating for the proxy because it is usually consistent with the issuer credit rating. (2), Taiwan, China
SUMMARY REPORTS Reports FILTER BY Type Sector Region Date Range SYNOPSIS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next
Since 1981, the 'B' rating category has accounted for 1,767 defaults (55.7% of the total from initial rating), well more than double the number of defaults from the 'BB' category (see tables 10 and 12). Sources: S&P Global Ratings Research and S&P Global Market Intelligence's CreditPro. (2), Namibia
The U.S. has the largest number of rated corporate issuers, accounting for roughly 46% of the global total at the start of 2021. NR--Not rated. The transaction involved a combination of repurchases and debt exchanges that would reduce its outstanding debt burden to US$100 million from about US$550 million.
Over the long term, the global weighted average Gini coefficient (a measure of the rank-ordering power of ratings over a given time horizon) was 82.6% over the one-year horizon, 75.4% over three years, 71.6% over five years, and 69.1% over seven years (see table 27). Many of the tables and charts in this study display averages of default rates, transition rates, and Gini ratios.
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