By getting the safety to commit to the nearside, it makes the throw and catch much easier. It is an odd strategy to force a pocket passing QB with a strong arm, but limited mobility into a West Coast system. Week 5 ranking: 4 (-3) Tanner Mordecai has done everything in his power to push the Mustangs in 2021. Evaluating the Los Angeles Rams trade for WR Sammy Watkins: Was it worth it? The former Penn State QB transferred to Kentucky after spring ball in 2021. Hes elusive in the pocket, an exceptional athlete, and has some of the best accuracy in the draft this year. He is worth betting on in the mid rounds, but Thompson-Robinson is far from certain. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. With the Titans, his completion rate hasn't changed much. Deep attempts:23-of-61, 885 yards, 11:3 TD-to-INT ratio, 104.7 passer rating. If we made it 20 additional deep bombs (the approximate difference between Stafford and Mahomes) and took a slightly more conservative average of 30 yards per play, this would give Goff an 8.1 ypa number. After three years of charting the ball placement of every throw of every game, the top-three highest single-season deep-passing accuracy rates belong to Russell Wilson in 2016 (55.6), Derek Carr in 2018 (52.3%) and Derek Carr in 2016 (51.1%). 2020 Goff: 67.0% compl, 263.5 yards per game, 7.2 yards per attempt, 20 TDs, 13 INTs, 90 rating, 58.4 QBR, 6.27 ANY/A. Over the years, Cousins has somewhat improved in this area. 54.5%. Sanu's injury was also the turning point in the season where Tom Brady's production fell off of a cliff. Interestingly, Goff was still one of the most accurate QBs in the league when throwing deep balls out of the shotgun formation in 2019. He'd be just behind Josh Allen. Watson was often tasked with trying to throw the Texans back into games, meaning he had to air it out in the fourth quarter. Shot Zone situation Baker Mayfield was accurate on 29 of 52 deep passes (55.8%) last season. The arm strength and deep accuracy from Fields was elite all season. He also exudes great vision in the running game. Rodgers had the second-most deep pass attempts of any qualifying quarterback in the NFL in 2020 with 74, which explains why his CPOE is lower than that of most players on this list (the higher total of passes increases the chances he'll exceed expectation at a lower rate due to sheer volume). He isnt afraid to dump it off either. In all, we were reminded of what we already knew: Rodgers is a fantastic passer downfield, and the Packers aren't afraid to use his talents to their advantage. One of Tannehill's key missed opportunities came in the playoff loss, when AJ Brown got wide open on a deep go route and put his hand up, but Tannehill never saw it and didn't throw the pass to him, possibly costing the Titans a much needed TD. Brady finished outside the top 10 in QBR for the 1st time. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. Not as dramatic a rise as we saw from Watson and Allen, but he's gone from being near the very bottom of the NFL to the top half of QBs. The Real Forno Show, 3 reasons the Vikings must be aggressive in finding Kirk Cousins replacement, Vikings to host Alabama Safety Brian Branch on a top-30 visit, Vikings go surprising route in Lance Zierlein's mock draft, Deonte Banks continues to be the top choice at 23, Hendon Hooker to the Vikings is growing in popularity, Vikings 2023 NFL draft scouting report: Georgia DT Jalen Carter, Zulgad's four-and-out: Vikings' draft strategy has potential to go in many directions, 2023 NFL Mock Draft: Kevin Fielder's Mock Draft 4.0, The Vikings have drafted 8 Hall of Fame players, Vikings 2023 NFL draft scouting report: UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy, Stats: 63.3%, 10,710 yards, 88 touchdowns, 36 interceptions, 471 carries, 1,826 yards, 3.9 yards per carry, 28 touchdowns, Games watched: Hawaii 2021, Stanford 2022, USC 2022, Colorado 2022. If he can return from his injury and the Bengals can continue to build around him, I think he'll be fine. Still, I think Cousins is a solid QB and not the failure he was made out to be in 2018. The read is typically to look at the sit route first and then the drag coming in behind it. Jared Goff had 9 starts against top 16 pass defenses and 6 starts against bottom 16 pass defenses. He didn't need the comfort of the Ducks' shotgun-only offense to do so, either, throwing five touchdowns on deep passes from under center (tied with Kirk Cousins for the league lead). Next Gen Stats' top 10 pass catchers of 2020: Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams rank high, but not No. A QB can improve his stats even without being very accurate on deep bombs. He did this all despite a relatively quiet debut season from deep threat Henry Ruggs III, who needs to improve at getting in and out of his breaks as he enters Year Two, per Mayock. Per SIS, Watson had a completion rate of 53.4% on deep passes this year. These were the QB stats in those contests: Goff: 4-1 record, 68.2% completions, 281.4 yards per game, 7.2 yards per attempt, 5 TDs, 4 INTs, Cousins: 1-4 record, 68.9% completions, 270.2 ypg, 7.6 ypa, 10 TDs, 3 INTs. He flashed the potential to be a good NFL QB as a rookie, but he wasn't set up to succeed in every aspect. Despite the stats and the tape not necessarily showing much improvement by Tannehill as a deep passer, he still led the Titans to the AFC title game and was rewarded with a rich contract, with a salary of nearly $30 million per season. For someone like Mooney who is looking to be a bigger threat in 2021, having an accurate passer especially deep downfield is something that should have Mooney excited. His 85 Throw on the Run and 94 Throw Power ratings are both highest in the game among the rookie QB class. That is nearly 200% the number of times Goff went deep. He was terrible at tight window throws and below average even in clean pockets. He was 10th best on throws over 30 yards among QBs with at least 20 attempts. The 2022 NFL Draft class for quarterbacks has changed plenty during the 2021 college football season. Big Ben's 3 year cumulative accuracy percentage from 2017 to 2019 was 35.1%. They used more TEs and focused on running the ball with Dalvin Cook. That was more attempts than the previous 2 seasons combined. His production is back to the 2017 level when he had Cooks in New England. What did we learn about TCU WR Quentin Johnston and Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker? Watson had poor accuracy rates on deep balls (Kinsley categorizes accuracy separate from completion percentage, because he visually watches each throw and adjusts for things such as dropped passes, hail mary throws, etc. New York Jets. Dak Prescott has earned layers of criticism from NFL faithful for his turnovers, but on the deep ball he got away with just one turnover all season. The defender underneath has widened to the flats and the space for the curl is wide open. Lets start with his ability to move. He took the full-time starting role entering the 2022 season. He's only won one playoff game as a starting QB. Turns out Brady can't make just any random WR look good. His completion rate was about 30%. Unfortunately, he had a high ankle sprain in that game. Thompson-Robinson not only hits it easily, but he leads the receiver for more yards after the catch. Wilson initially landed ninth on this list, but we've bumped him up a place to give him the credit he deserves for his continued excellence. This is just a variation on the back of the envelope calculation we did above where we used 35 yards and 30 yards to estimate the impact of deep balls. The Dagger concept (a backside dig with a go routes on the inside to clear the safety) is one that UCLA dominated with last season. Reads for Fields just came a beat late. In 2017, Brady had 66.3% completions for 4,577 yards, 286.1 ypg, a 102.8 QB rating and 70.6 QBR. Tua was also the second most accurate passer throwing into clean pockets, impressive considering the Dolphins didnt have clean pockets in 2019. If you put ARod or Mahomes on that Bucs team, how many yards would they have had? There has only been one season in Goff's career where the Rams have truly capitalized on Goff's deep passing ability and that was the 2018 season. Tannehill had a 34.2% deep ball completion rate his last 3 year with the Dolphins. Dorsett never had at least 400 receiving yards for the Patriots. Trevor Lawrence Breakdown: The Prince That Was Promised, Zach Wilson film analysis How hell fit in the NFL. Josh Allen in 2018 was ranked 27th by Kinsley. Interpreted as: NFL qb deep ball passing accuracy. Watson was accurate on 10 out of 29 attempts over 25 yards, a 34.5% rate, still below average. those raiders teams were legitimately good squads. Here, he looks off the safety to hit the receier on a deep slant for a huge gain. His accuracy rate on passes over 20 yards fell from 43.2% to 34%. Deep attempts: 27-of-66, 916 yards, 7:2 TD-to-INT ratio, 111 passer rating Comp: 40.9% xComp: 36.7% CPOE: +4.2% PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 93 It's It takes a perfect throw with the safety inside and the corner bracketing outside. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. But, the question isn't whether Burrow is on track to the HOF. He absorbed the most sacks in a season since his first year as a starter. Playing with Cam Newton in 2020, Harry still had very little production. He has a good OL, an abundance of riches at the skill positions, plus a strong defense. 34. Kaepernick proved to be an outstanding deep-ball passer during his rookie season, connecting on 25-of-49 throws 20-plus yards down field. Without Cooks, the WR group for the Pats would have been weak that season, leaving Gronk as the only high level target in the offense. Matt Stafford had a similar percentage at 4.5%. Wentz's deep accuracy was atrocious in 2020, but in 2021 that changed drastically with a new team. The bad news is he missed way too often. Fields showed exceptional accuracy from the pocket, displayed elite arm strength, and was a threat on the ground with almost 400 rushing yards in only eight games in 2020. I mean, consider these stats: Cousins: 67.6% completions, 4,265 yards, 8.3 ypa, 35 TDs, 13 INTs, 39 sacks, 105 rating, Russell Wilson: 68.8% compl, 4,212 yards, 7.5 ypa, 40 TDs, 13 INTs, 47 sacks, 105.1 rating. Ben Roethlisberger in 2018 went deep frequently. On all passes over 20 air yards, Watson's accuracy was exactly equal to the league average, ranking him 18th in the NFL (Goff was 8th.) AP Offensive Rookie of the Year: Justin Herbert. PFF's exclusive metrics provide matchup previews, position rankings, grades, and snap counts. 3: Derek Carr Last season, Carr averaged -0.36 EPA/attempt, a 32% success rate, 6.8 YPA (yards per attempt) and a 54% completion rate while under pressure. Plus, an overlooked signing that could completely revitalize a once-proud defense. 1 Justin Herbert's big challenge in Year 2? Trying to get the top seed in the final game of the regular season, Brady had an ugly pick six at home and the Pats suffered a stunning upset to a bad Miami Dolphins team. Chad Reuter forecasts five potential trades that would make sense involving Round 1 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Both teams had HOF QBs, but an offense that can't run the ball consistently and can't throw deep consistently, that's not a good recipe for success. PFF NFL Mock Draft: Rams trade up for Will Levis, Todd McShay 2-round NFL Mock Draft: Rams get former 5-star talent in secondary. The offensive line gives Goff a pristine pocket and he loads up and unleashes a rainmaker. In NE, Brady was only a dangerous deep passer when he had a very specific type of WR. Arm talent. Goff can be part of the solution, but there needs to be a fuller commitment from the Rams from both a scheme and personnel standpoint to emphasize the deep pass. It is 3rd & 16. He was 4th best on clean pocket throws for QBs with at least 20 attempts and 5th best on tight window deep throws. * Home Games qualifier is on pace for at least 80 pass attempts. His 12 deep completions off play-action were the third-most in the league, driving home what we all observed in 2020: The Browns are at their best when they use a run-first foundation and catch the defense napping when going to the air. According to SIS, Tannehill's deep pass completion rate for 2020 was virtually identical to his 2019 rate. Ryan has been one of the most accurate deep ball QB most of last 5 years. The fact that he made this list despite losing Hopkins in the offseason is an accomplishment in itself. WebNFL qb deep ball passing accuracy. He is showing again in 2021, that he is one of the most accurate after AS decided to run plays longer than 5-10 yards. It seems that addition along with Burrow growing after his rookie season has turned the quarterback into one of the most accurate deep ball passers from last season. Will Derion Kendrick or Robert Rochell develop into Rams CB2? He had a 32% accuracy rate on deep bombs. Kinsley measured him to be only accurate on 29.3% of such throws. One of those games was against the Giants, who were 17th, just outside of the top 16. Age 37. The statistics illustrate a quarterback who is about as steady as they come when looking downfield, even after his offense changed coordinators with the departure of Kevin Stefanski last offseason. In Week 17 of the 2020 NFL season, the Titans needed to secure a victory against the Texans. He threw for 3,684 yards, 41 touchdowns, and six interceptions with a 125 passer rating. All right, enough with the explaining about why certain players didn't make the list. Earlier this week, PFF ranked the 2021 starting quarterbacks' deep passing by various metrics, and Garoppolo came in at No. Give Jameis Winston essentially the same team and he almost single handedly ruins it. Even more concerning was the dropoff in the frequency that the Rams attempted deep passes. This is a prime example of that. Short passes might keep the chains moving, but it's the deep ball that dominates the highlight reel. Yet, it makes a big difference in how we view the QB and also potentially on how successful the team is in winning games. Things don't have to be perfect to be good. Some of his deep attempts at Clemson were ugly and it was one reason I wasn't sold on him at the time as a high 1st round draft pick. His overall passing stats were also very similar to 2020 Goff. We've seen this before with Cousins. Now, we'll zero in on that statistic as we examine how NFL quarterbacks performed in 2021 from three different target depths: short (1-9 yards), intermediate (10-19 yards) and deep (20-plus yards). Here are the top 10: 1. With that in mind, our analysts debate which prospect SHOULD come off the board first on April 27. For several seasons, John Kinsley had grinded out many hours of film to produce a very detailed statistical analysis of NFL QB performance on deep ball passes. Stroud was even better in 2021 with one less game played, throwing for 4,424 yards, 44 touchdowns, and a 130.8 passer rating. If a quarterback isn't at least meeting expectation on deep throws, I'm not going to include him in the top 10. From position ranks to power rankings, you can find it all at PFF. Thompson-Robinson not only hits it easily, but he leads the receiver for more yards after the catch. He took the full-time starting role entering the 2022 season. Unfortunately, hes off balance and throws it right to the defender. The Pats had a top 10 offensive line in 2019. He ranked 18th in the Deep Ball Project (Goff was 8th that season.) Like Goff, Stafford had one good year throwing deep bombs and that was in 2019. Their return to the field in 2015 was a key reason that Cousins saved his starting spot and didn't get benched. And finally, coming in on the low end of downfield attempts can hurt a quarterback's chances of earning a spot here, as well. So, while he was slightly better than he had been in 2017, he was still a poor deep ball passer in 2018. Fields initially looks that way, but just as the rub is coming open, he comes off the read. Sign up for our newsletter and get every update delivered to your inbox! According to the numbers of this project, Pickett only completed 15 out of 40 passes of 21 or more air yards on the season, yet he was accurate on 23 out of 40. In 2015, Kinsley evaluated QBs on all passes over 15 yards. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports. Thompson-Robinson is a talented prospect who can make all the throws, but inconsistencies have him going in round three or later. He only completed 21.9% of his deep bombs, a horribly low number. Fittingly, Goff and Stafford were both tied for 19th in the Deep Ball Project rankings in 2019. Deep attempts: 31-of-74, 1,219 yards, 12:0 TD-to-INT ratio, 128.7 passer rating. He might look like milktoast at times and come up small in big games. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics. Four of those came on the run, which was an NFL-best in such scenarios. Eric Edholm provides five takeaways. Herbert is just getting started. He had 61 deep attempts. Time will tell if he can replicate that in 2021. In 2018, only 4.8% of Goff's attempts went for over 25 air yards. 1, but the numbers don't lie.
Approximately one additional deep completion per game. The Pats also could have taken Van Jefferson if they had held onto that pick.
Burrow was put in a challenging situation. If you believe some of the metrics, it is possible you could have replaced Brady with players like Cousins and Carr and they might have had at least as good (if not better) numbers as Brady in 2020. These numbers only reinforce that reality. Will Eagles GM Howie Roseman get to wheeling and dealing? His clean pocket accuracy went down to 17th. With the Bills, Diggs has gone wild. The 2019 version of the declining Brady narrative might have even started a couple years earlier if Brandin Cooks hadn't been on the team, because Cooks possibly propped up his yardage stats. The Dagger concept (a backside dig with a go routes on the inside to clear the safety) is one that UCLA dominated with last season. Similar deal with Justin Herbert, who connected at a 37.7% rate. Aaron Rodgers might be the most accurate quarterback in the league, and hes certainly one of the most careful. His QBR, QB rating, yards per attempt and completion rate declined each year from 2016 to 2019. Leaderboards showing who threw the deep balls most, most accurately, the most for TD, and best Mark Simon 01.06.2021 By KYLE RODEMANN Completing a deep pass can be a vital turning point in a game. Last week, we ranked the top quarterbacks in deep passing situations using a multitude of metrics, including accuracy percentage and accuracy-plus percentage. When he didn't have Moss and Cooks, Brady had a different approach. Deep attempts: 24-of-52, 968 yards, 10:1 TD-to-INT ratio, 124.2 passer rating. Mayfield went from a CPOE of +3.9 percent and passer rating of 72.9 on deep passes in 2019 to a +11.2 CPOE and 112.7 rating in 2020. It comes by looking at what happened to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots after they traded Cooks to the Rams. Deep ball crazy Patrick Mahomes launched bombs at a rate of about 12%. Herbert recorded the most short pass attempts (315) of any quarterback on the list. Stat to know: Jackson blew away the field in expected points added on designed rushes in 2019. In 2020, he had a challenger in the form of Murray but still took the crown. The Ravens QB remains the clear top choice on designed carries. -- Walder Riser to watch: Lance will be in the top three next year if he plays this season. It was the most deep pass completions Watson has had in a single season in his career. This is slightly misleading, because Stafford that season was abnormally good on super deep passes and very poor in the 20 to 35 yard range. He was 14th in 2018. Derek Carr at 35.1% had a similar 3 year accuracy rate. Thompson-Robinson stands in the pocket for over four seconds looking to attack down the field. What's most remarkable is Cousins' ability to remain steady when faced with a major increase in high-difficulty throws. In 2018, Goff had the best completion percentage in the entire NFL on passes over 20 air yards. Despite having good WR talent, the Steelers were hampered by having one of the worst run blocking offensive lines in the NFL. six attempts). But, Stafford had 6 completions that year of over 40 yards (Goff only had one such completion in 2019.) He has really good pocket presence to stand and deliver down the field along with working through full field progressions. You get 3 downs before you punt. Once again, these numbers are similar to the stats for Jared Goff in 2020. Not a very glorious way to cap his career with the Patriots. He went from having 79 deep passing attempts in 2017 to only 56 deep ball tries in 2018. He wasn't even close to the same threat as Cooks. The pass isn't caught, but it is a 52 yard bomb once again dropped in at a steep angle. He was phenomenal in that regard, posting a CPOE of +20.8 on deep passes in the fourth quarter or overtime in 2020, the highest mark in the entire league (min. Goff went 183-for-233 for 1,487 yards and six touchdowns on such throws. Not included in the shotgun passing statistic is one of the most famous Goff deep balls, because it happened the previous year. No one was more productive on the scoring front when going deep than Wilson, as he led the league in deep passing touchdowns with 13. top quarterbacks in deep passing situations. His Cal highlights are littered with deep passes out of shotgun formation. Is Will Anderson Jr. a fresh version of seven-time Pro Bowler Khalil Mack? He was perhaps the most accurate deep passer in the league last season and showed superb touch and precision to all areas of the field. The WR talent was undeniable. One of the strongest arguments supporting the theory that the reason the Rams can't throw deep bombs is due to the loss of Brandin Cooks doesn't even involve looking at the Rams themselves. Fields here is reading the curl from his #2 receiver and the ball should be out at the top of his drop. Stafford's 3 year accuracy rate from 2017 to 2019 was 35.5%. The talent around Mahomes could be working against him when it comes to CPOE. He attempted a deep throw on just 7.5% of his attempts, 36th This is a 53 yard bomb thrown high in the air. Rushing is a very common thing with Thompson Robinson. Thanks to the threatening presence of running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, Mayfield racked up 426 deep passing yards on play-action passes, tying for second-most in the league. Those 10 plays would push Goff into almost the top 5 of the NFL in yards per attempt. February 27, 2023 By restaurants on the water in st clair shores. Two years later, even with Megatron gone, Stafford had better stats. To qualify for this list, a player had to have at least 30 deep pass attempts in 2020, and to filter out the best from the rest, a passer rating of 100.0 or better on deep attempts was required. He climbed up to 11th place in the 2019 rankings. Justin Herbert, Chargers Mar 4, 2022 at 9:13 AM. The accuracy is there in the intermediate and short game as well. By the end of the year, he and Goff had the same number of INTs. Just outside of the most accurate deep ball completion rate for 2020 was virtually identical to his 2019.... Yards would they have had like milktoast at times and come up small big. Here is reading the curl is wide open balls, because it happened the previous.. Not the failure he was terrible at tight window deep throws, I think Cousins is a talented prospect can! Expectation on deep throws a fresh version of seven-time Pro Bowler Khalil Mack traded Cooks to defender! Force a pocket passing QB with a New team odd strategy to force a pocket QB. 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